South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b59e71cc759cfb185c3791073bb2d39bad4772dd8afc63c7c38b976ed072fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 4,009$2,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.76 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,594$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.25 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,150$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 43c | 912.31$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.64 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 30c | 800$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.75 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…984ebacked Yes | 4c | 571.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 351.51$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 275.81$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 266.14$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd260…b480backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 29c | 198.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 22.1%21 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 18c | 67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 37c | 61.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed No | 73c | 61.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…7a2cbacked Yes | 39c | 44.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 38.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 71c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-01-28?No won
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-01-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.