South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-01-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x279ace0de014539eb6db8292bce329a4643bf73d4bfc85bb9726debc12f97776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 3c | 2,788$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 1,730$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.96 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,125$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.85 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 45c | 1,081$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.23 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 21c | 660$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 56c | 501$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.44 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 22c | 490$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Yes | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 440.44$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…2c5ebacked Yes | 23c | 438.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 73c | 431.96$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 23c | 342$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 28c | 297.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 265.97$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 58c | 216$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed No | 79c | 176.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 24c | 164.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 79c | 121.36$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 74c | 115.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…5408backed Yes | 21c | 113.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Yes | 23c | 88.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…bf49backed Yes | 14c | 74.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 79c | 69.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 58.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…51f2backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda25…abafbacked No | 79c | 29.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 24.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 80c | 16.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-01-28?this page
- Will Mirassol FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?No won
- Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-01-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.