Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Spizzirri
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b6c4f630f5c0d5ea8e390d6f4dffaa994efe8c2a5eaa0ee0bf45a97495dff56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spizzirriof Fonseca, Spizzirri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spizzirri | 47c | 185.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Fonseca | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977d…9a58backed Fonseca | 54c | 97.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…390abacked Fonseca | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba3…8d20backed Spizzirri | 78c | 62.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Spizzirri | 52c | 61.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…0c2fbacked Spizzirri | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…4d00backed Fonseca | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Spizzirri | 57c | 32.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Fonseca | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Spizzirrithis page
- Australian Open Men's: Joao Fonseca vs Eliot SpizzirriSpizzirri won
- Fonseca vs. Spizzirri: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Fonseca vs. Spizzirri: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Fonseca vs. Spizzirri: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Fonseca vs. Spizzirri: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Spizzirri: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Spizzirri (+1.5)Spizzirri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.