Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b9ea47dca9b09d12b6038c9a137aeba7b5f954290893163230d2e7c38a0496d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 57c | 22,576$12,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,707.75 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 43c | 20,000$8,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,600 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 31c | 3,968$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.42 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 43c | 2,079$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.63 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 1,311$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.48 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 64c | 784.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.92 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 61c | 528.14$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 57c | 415.26$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 40c | 366.66$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.66 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 59c | 297.2$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…7365backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 39c | 143$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…7fc3backed Over | 61c | 97.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 41c | 88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 18c | 72.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 39c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 78c | 44.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Over | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Over | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 38c | 32.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Over | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 61c | 25.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Over | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Over | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)FC Basel 1893 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.