Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5491aa18c0547166ac093287e25e8bc8db58d1db0cf11c337cfe31fb3b9a17eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed Over | 50c | 39,958$19,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,979 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 18,577$9,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,061.1 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 53c | 14,999$8,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,977.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 11,998$5,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,083.54 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 39c | 3,874$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 59c | 3,154$1,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.47 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 48c | 3,151$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…461abacked Over | 39c | 3,134$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…e4babacked Under | 64c | 2,715$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…b988backed Under | 51c | 1,963$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 51c | 1,781$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.51 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 60c | 992.98$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.19 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 42c | 854.25$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Under | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ee…15cbbacked Under | 64c | 550$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 35c | 547.38$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.19 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 36c | 458.33$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 60c | 444$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 38c | 293$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 37c | 144$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…2da5backed Under | 52c | 95.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 62c | 93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…8afcbacked Over | 40c | 89.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 24c | 87.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…c379backed Under | 64c | 86.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 38c | 72.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 52c | 40.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 63c | 39.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…92babacked Over | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 37c | 34.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 40c | 32.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Over | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Over | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Over | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)FC Basel 1893 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.