Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a8708b30f4e13c4c8646b4435ec8892fb0dd45dc43498ad9cc0394b0adac11b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Basel 1893of Aston Villa FC, FC Basel 1893
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Aston Villa FC | 35c | 5,810$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.83 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Basel 1893 | 68c | 3,598$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.09 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Basel 1893 | 69c | 1,977$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.64 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed FC Basel 1893 | 54c | 1,651$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.26 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Aston Villa FC | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked FC Basel 1893 | 67c | 1,124$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Aston Villa FC | 44c | 920.61$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.71 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Aston Villa FC | 33c | 407$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Aston Villa FC | 35c | 389.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed FC Basel 1893 | 69c | 318.95$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Aston Villa FC | 33c | 263.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Aston Villa FC | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Aston Villa FC | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Aston Villa FC | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed FC Basel 1893 | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Aston Villa FC | 32c | 137.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Aston Villa FC | 35c | 115.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Aston Villa FC | 32c | 108.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed FC Basel 1893 | 68c | 102$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Aston Villa FC | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…2a8ebacked Aston Villa FC | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed FC Basel 1893 | 66c | 98.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Aston Villa FC | 34c | 91.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Aston Villa FC | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed FC Basel 1893 | 69c | 88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Aston Villa FC | 32c | 87.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…fee8backed Aston Villa FC | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed FC Basel 1893 | 66c | 76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Aston Villa FC | 36c | 74.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Aston Villa FC | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Aston Villa FC | 32c | 62.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked FC Basel 1893 | 68c | 61.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Aston Villa FC | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Aston Villa FC | 28c | 47.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Aston Villa FC | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Basel 1893 | 45c | 40.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Aston Villa FC | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Aston Villa FC | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Aston Villa FC | 34c | 33.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked FC Basel 1893 | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed FC Basel 1893 | 68c | 31.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Aston Villa FC | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed FC Basel 1893 | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Aston Villa FC | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FC Basel 1893 | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 639 | 57.1%365 W · 274 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Aston Villa FC | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed FC Basel 1893 | 79c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Basel 1893 | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 387 | 53%205 W · 182 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)this page
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Basel 1893 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.