Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2baa90619a775663a20af970373e68dcd4b0dea0b763e16ebaee94706316e3b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Pipsqueak+4, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 5,800$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.27 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 3,190$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.8 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 56c | 3,077$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.76 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked Aurora | 59c | 2,782$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.93 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 58c | 2,410$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.16 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Aurora | 76c | 261.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Aurora | 66c | 250.74$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 73c | 212.38$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 132.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 131.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Aurora | 65c | 131.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Aurora | 56c | 130.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 79c | 124.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 104.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked Aurora | 57c | 87.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Aurora | 76c | 77.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 60.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Pipsqueak+4 | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…0cb5backed Aurora | 55c | 57.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Aurora | 56c | 57.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Aurora | 52c | 46.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 34.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Aurora | 66c | 25.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…0a59backed Aurora | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…9859backed Aurora | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Aurora | 74c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Aurora (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.