Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe8575e2457d6fe55ce61adedbca14e14baeae910b50047a230d55b8ed537354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Pipsqueak+4, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1d4…38d6backed Aurora | 1c | 5,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 5,297$2,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.58 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Aurora | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 62c | 1,457$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.48 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked Aurora | 38c | 784.97$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Aurora | 7c | 724.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Pipsqueak+4 | 38c | 500$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.65 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 459.26$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.5 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 69c | 432.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 18c | 417.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Aurora | 63c | 384.17$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.57 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -7.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Aurora | 35c | 360$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.2 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 58c | 213.13$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Pipsqueak+4 | 58c | 171.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Aurora | 47c | 147$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 105.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Aurora | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…51c2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Aurora | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Aurora | 62c | 55.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Aurora | 56c | 53.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Aurora | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 44.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Aurora | 61c | 41.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Aurora | 57c | 35.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Aurora | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Aurora | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Aurora | 73c | 27.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Aurora | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Aurora (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.