Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb4c1ee0953b91e9d9f67a743413a70826a8b4d663ab0f615d5d189a7892260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,012 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 58c | 516$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.46 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…375bbacked Yes | 46c | 366.95$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 42c | 307.87$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 211.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 50c | 200.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 50c | 196.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 177$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 51c | 173.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 36c | 150.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 59c | 142.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 129.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 121$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 55c | 117.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 62c | 98.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 55c | 95.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 37c | 95.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 93.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 91.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 90.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 67c | 74.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 38c | 70.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 67.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 54c | 62.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 60c | 57.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 55c | 56.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 39c | 53.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 50.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 43c | 46.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 42.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 39c | 41.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 50c | 39.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d11…8959backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 52c | 32.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 46c | 30.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 42c | 27.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 21.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 56c | 20.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.