Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf69f0a78b384d7d68f4e5e3b574397e13aebaf451536fb9edce0b014f835ab24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,916 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf3d…8080backed Yes | 0c | 13,851$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd8…0819backed Yes | 20c | 4,020$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73f…03ddbacked No | 80c | 1,380$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +114%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,378$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69b6…9525backed No | 80c | 1,360$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf601…0989backed No | 80c | 1,280$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 1,107$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.05 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 32c | 1,073$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.28 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 880.22$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.25 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 668.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 25c | 656.72$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.27 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 4c | 602.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.57 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 579.39$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 28c | 382.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 371.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.58 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 309.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.83 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 268.12$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 21c | 249.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 244.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 33c | 238.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.84 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 9c | 210.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 21c | 200.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 70c | 200.04$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 18c | 195.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 193.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 30c | 181$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 44c | 167.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 49c | 159.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 22c | 142.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 129.22$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a23…8da7backed Yes | 32c | 122.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 37c | 121$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 36c | 104.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 22c | 99.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 30c | 97.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 31c | 86.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 65c | 83.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 82.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 77.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 76c | 74.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 70.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 68.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 30c | 66.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 18c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 56.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 80c | 52.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 34c | 29.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 26.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed No | 68c | 20.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.