Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77686f7c4d47de1ee8464c2d5eb980dc14fd99ae70fdfdc3f754a58b58e97da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,623 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 3c | 5,683$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,534.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed No | 1c | 2,371$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 1c | 2,232$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 2c | 2,153$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.97 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 1c | 1,723$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,269$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 11c | 1,187$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.66 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 9c | 756.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.89 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 9c | 529.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.38 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 29c | 521.04$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.88 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 3c | 499.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.93 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 4c | 499.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.91 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 4c | 424.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.83 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 17c | 419.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 19c | 291.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 260.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.06 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 33c | 250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 46c | 226.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.07 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 223.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 223.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.71 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…852cbacked Yes | 10c | 199.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 44c | 195.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 9c | 185.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.26 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed Yes | 75c | 165.19$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 67c | 157.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed No | 39c | 154.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 12c | 151.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.41 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 142.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 10c | 133.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.65 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…ce8fbacked Yes | 11c | 131.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.81 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 78c | 128.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 22c | 126.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 9c | 122.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 117.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…3d55backed No | 15c | 115.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 10c | 113.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 99.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 28c | 97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 17c | 83.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 14c | 78.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 55.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 30c | 50.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 65c | 39.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked Yes | 43c | 24.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes | 72c | 22.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 69c | 19.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 16.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.