Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Bonzi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb5c86e3885b7df2e1074617c0338f10f86f0fa98b651c1b305c76dc8a0d3b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bonziof Sinner, Bonzi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sinner | 80c | 1,407$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.02 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…6e89backed Bonzi | 28c | 1,010$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.12 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Sinner | 69c | 402.42$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.75 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sinner | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.82 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Bonzi | 13c | 397.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.88 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Bonzi | 24c | 308.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.41 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6794…0a8bbacked Bonzi | 22c | 306.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.46 | 130 | 16.9%22 W · 108 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Sinner | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Bonzi | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Bonzi | 12c | 269.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.72 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Bonzi | 17c | 253.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.48 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Bonzi | 27c | 234$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.09 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Bonzi | 25c | 221.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.77 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Bonzi | 58c | 210$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 640 | 65.9%422 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Bonzi | 11c | 172.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.41 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…615bbacked Sinner | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Sinner | 42c | 126.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4833…17d5backed Bonzi | 20c | 120.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e3…e61bbacked Sinner | 46c | 104.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Bonzi | 38c | 81.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Sinner | 78c | 79.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Bonzi | 22c | 79.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Bonzi | 18c | 78.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Sinner | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Bonzi | 19c | 53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bonzi | 39c | 50.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Sinner | 79c | 48.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Sinner | 51c | 48.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Sinner | 77c | 47.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Bonzi | 26c | 46.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 392 | 38.8%152 W · 240 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Bonzi | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Sinner | 42c | 39.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Bonzi | 50c | 36.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Sinner | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Sinner | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Sinner | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Sinner | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Sinner | 66c | 25.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…58c4backed Sinner | 80c | 14.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 306 | 53.3%163 W · 143 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Bonzithis page
- Jannik Sinner vs. Benjamin Bonzi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin BonziJannik Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Bonzi: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Bonzi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.