Premier League · resolved market
Will Crystal Palace beat Chelsea?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf1b0179d6a9a5860bbfe2f6e940a4bfe5098b40dd6841d0868c911249f591f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fc5…38d9backed Yes | 16c | 5,405$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.8 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,557$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.16 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Yes | 17c | 1,512$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.11 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 17c | 631.45$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.35 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 18c | 564.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 17c | 549.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…a1debacked Yes | 20c | 457.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 17c | 434$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b2…5c57backed Yes | 19c | 244$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 16c | 185.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 19c | 107.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a5…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 89.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 18c | 77.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 80c | 42.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crystal Palace beat Chelsea?this page
- Will Chelsea beat Crystal Palace?No won
- Will Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.