MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bfad95c658be6030b5878fdfadcfcc100b30b7baecbd89206d456ebfb3d41a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 3,182$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.89 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 1,692$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Kansas City Royals | 3c | 943.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 843.48$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 712.72$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.6 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 709.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.4 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 584.52$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.03 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 543.48$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 478.68$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.19 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Kansas City Royals | 10c | 275$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d9…8806backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 111$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 111$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 111$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 108.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Kansas City Royals | 43c | 107$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 59.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 55.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…e019backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.