Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c2a3eb93e8faa9bb1a896d39f5d8afb0884be44c17936daf34368d15ec08dc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 72c | 2,750$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 28c | 2,248$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.58 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 17c | 1,250$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 1,110$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.68 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 28c | 398.43$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.56 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 353.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 72c | 351.39$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Under | 72c | 173.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 28c | 94.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 71c | 43.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 72c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5this page
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Under won
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Under won
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-2.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.