Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8a0f7baf0e94d2892d644c5e8350d3f6a31a8dedca34a8d0984a6021d08f0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 5,396$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800.15 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.99 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Under | 49c | 4,041$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 2,896$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.29 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…70d4backed Over | 53c | 2,170$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.39 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 52c | 866$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.32 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 525.42$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.33 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 53c | 433.96$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -8.5wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…d2f0backed Under | 49c | 432.65$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 5c | 380.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 47c | 318.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf617…80c9backed Under | 49c | 269.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 259.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 19c | 248.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 239.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 118.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Over | 52c | 103.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 48c | 98.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…e885backed Over | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…d62dbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 50c | 39.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Over | 52c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…7412backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Under | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82d…90dbbacked Over | 50c | 29.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 48c | 29.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…893ebacked Under | 51c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Over | 53c | 23.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 50c | 22.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…23c6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5this page
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Under won
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-2.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.