Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8be48e4029aa13351c1de88145460204f7cbca23d2f2873f845d1bb65a9f0115
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 3,039$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.98 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 77c | 1,950$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…facbbacked Over | 78c | 1,268$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 18c | 1,190$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.18 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 1,099$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.8 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 58c | 918.74$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.87 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 21c | 858$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.18 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 731.31$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.31 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 328.69$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.89 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 41c | 271.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 64c | 264.82$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 24c | 244.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.04 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Over | 73c | 138.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 58c | 110.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…a9dcbacked Under | 70c | 109.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 23c | 89.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…5863backed Under | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 47cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -8.5wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 28c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Over | 77c | 28.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 55c | 27.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 77c | 23.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Over | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Over | 77c | 13.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5this page
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Under won
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paris FC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-2.5)Paris FC won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: Paris FC (-2.5)OGC Nice won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.