South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-07-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c2e9afcf4e1bff3eba9c700e5ece6a0b98ae59952efa454f4a4b24b4c880251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 1c | 16,075$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.54 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 24c | 4,097$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.54 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 1,734$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.57 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 21c | 1,722$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.22 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Yes | 25c | 1,538$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.84 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 77c | 1,321$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.3 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed Yes | 25c | 1,225$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.11 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 21c | 1,102$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.37 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 77c | 1,020$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.78 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 1c | 892.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 22c | 689.89$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.37 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e8…0039backed Yes | 3c | 543.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Yes | 26c | 536.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Yes | 41c | 528.54$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.9 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 62c | 401.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.1 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Yes | 16c | 221.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked Yes | 23c | 213.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 20c | 212.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 195$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 25c | 136.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed Yes | 12c | 136$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed No | 74c | 135.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 116.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 74c | 92.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 24c | 87.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 76c | 78.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 19c | 73.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 76c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…3cf1backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 71c | 60.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 79c | 58.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 25c | 54.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed No | 78c | 51.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 46.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffb…261dbacked Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 77c | 41.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed No | 79c | 37.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 77cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed No | 74c | 21.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 76c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…a670backed No | 78c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked No | 73c | 13.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-07-28?this page
- Will CA Banfield vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Banfield win on 2026-07-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.