Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c3ecbbde72bfa841ce4964686fa6cc30f54227c5efafbf3fd2ec6acbb0dbca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 13c | 700.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 381.66$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 9c | 330.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 303.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 274.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…d820backed No | 73c | 238.97$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 9c | 212.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 172.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 163.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 137.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 123.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 74c | 104.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 13c | 99.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 98.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 71c | 92.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 91.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 79c | 55.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 54.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 57c | 54.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…1c40backed Yes | 27c | 52.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 50.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed No | 66c | 42.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 31c | 33.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 42c | 31.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 26.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c40…fcf2backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 23.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 22.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 71c | 18.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 68c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 74c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 75c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.