Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe38d684788535e102b9be54f7bf12eda198c5a309d6f6a12796988be06e2220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,014$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…fbb1backed Yes | 2c | 710.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…c1d9backed No | 80c | 619.85$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 31c | 526.33$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.38 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 343.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 42c | 322.24$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.3 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 309.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 70c | 287.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.42 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 275.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.89 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 80c | 250.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 60c | 226$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…d820backed Yes | 52c | 212.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 206.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 22c | 195.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.72 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 195.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 28c | 194.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.25 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 153.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 65c | 152.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 26c | 148.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 42c | 138.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 42c | 120$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 49c | 109.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318c…b4c8backed No | 59c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 57c | 77.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 71c | 76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a2…5c4abacked Yes | 61c | 73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 45c | 70.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 77c | 68.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 57c | 67.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 63.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…ec7fbacked No | 44c | 62.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 32c | 55.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 54.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 46c | 53.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 59c | 51.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 25c | 51.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 48.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 35c | 48.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 48.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 41c | 47.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 65c | 40.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 32c | 33.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed Yes | 65c | 30.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…09febacked No | 45c | 30.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ea…8800backed No | 68c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 48c | 27.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 44c | 26.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 26.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 54c | 26.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 76c | 25.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.