Music · resolved market
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c4374db738725db50cb00049f4dd4e2aac99a4443da8acab341dbbe588ca588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 3c | 7,191$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 1c | 4,860$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 3c | 2,554$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…fe1abacked No | 3c | 2,541$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 1,979$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 5c | 1,750$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +217%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 4c | 1,604$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 4c | 1,290$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 4c | 1,141$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…88d4backed No | 9c | 1,001$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 3c | 745.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…d67cbacked No | 3c | 469.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 6c | 410$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 11c | 394.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 8c | 327.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed No | 4c | 291$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13da…b58fbacked No | 4c | 276.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…1395backed No | 11c | 133.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2024?this page
- Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2024?No won
- Will Billie Eilish be the top Spotify artist for 2024?No won
- Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2024?No won
- Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2024?No won
- Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2024?No won
- Will someone else be the top Spotify artist for 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.