South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c54c06c942d5dbaa7c7f82caa6c1209adab949eb2f54b82b69c80800dfc1a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,680 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,918$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.38 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 29c | 862.07$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.07 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 14c | 822.45$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.16 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…5a8abacked Over | 27c | 744.29$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…a382backed Under | 73c | 289.51$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Over | 28c | 279.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 28c | 276.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.43 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…dd2ebacked Under | 73c | 255.46$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 72c | 249.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…e715backed Under | 73c | 199.32$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 18c | 177.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 28c | 124.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 71c | 108.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 27c | 97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 53c | 89.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Over | 18c | 89.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 85.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 81.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf0…d1bdbacked Over | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa3…4d33backed Over | 61c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Under | 76c | 75.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 72c | 67.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 47c | 62.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5971backed Over | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…c000backed Under | 71c | 35.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 42c | 32.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 54c | 22.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-2.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.