South American Leagues · resolved market
Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc4e69097bba5f1eb2b3654b7da652e944ac2ec441196039fb3b3d1e423d2bfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,250 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 4,670$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.01 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7d…fbafbacked Over | 58c | 1,800$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 1,281$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.14 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 45c | 1,241$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.06 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.77 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 43c | 809.3$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.3 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 52c | 774.4$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.4 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 47c | 740.84$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.2 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 564.67$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.31 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 19c | 415.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.79 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…3045backed Over | 50c | 412$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 384.1$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.35 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 55c | 348$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.55 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 11c | 335$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 332.3$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.56 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 52c | 331.27$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.01 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Under | 51c | 319.21$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 50c | 258.94$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2c…d9c8backed Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 51c | 197.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 11c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 58c | 140.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 53c | 103.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 49c | 92.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 54c | 91.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 44c | 91.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 44c | 51.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 36c | 45.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 37.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked Under | 57c | 35.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 50c | 29.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 43c | 24.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4c…eed6backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Mirassol FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-2.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.