TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Diego Padres (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,177 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals44c3,764$1,656 inLost-$1,656.134,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres56c3,200$1,796 inWon+$1,404.3410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Kansas City Royals44c1,817$799 inLost-$799.4838353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed San Diego Padres58c1,755$1,018 inWon+$737.221850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres56c1,735$972 inWon+$763.48,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ce8…4dd6backed Kansas City Royals44c500$220 inLost-$2203551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals42c316.27$133 inLost-$132.834,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Kansas City Royals44c103.42$46 inLost-$45.881,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kansas City Royals45c68.89$31 inLost-$3147345.7%216 W · 257 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c60…01febacked Kansas City Royals41c68.18$28 inLost-$27.958056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Kansas City Royals40c67.5$27 inLost-$2747646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed San Diego Padres58c65.67$38 inWon+$27.582,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4f…b174backed San Diego Padres63c32.81$21 inWon+$12.2540753.3%217 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Kansas City Royals44c26.27$12 inLost-$11.6320362.6%127 W · 76 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed Kansas City Royals41c24.58$10 inLost-$10.0813151.1%67 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed San Diego Padres63c18.7$12 inWon+$6.922,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.