TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,635 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres63c7,392$4,657 inWon+$2,735.0811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals37c6,475$2,396 inLost-$2,395.834,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals37c971.41$359 inLost-$359.336,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49e…e5e8backed San Diego Padres64c389.36$250 inWon+$139.369545.3%43 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Kansas City Royals36c199.99$71 inLost-$712,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres63c158.52$100 inWon+$58.655,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Kansas City Royals37c129$48 inLost-$47.731,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked San Diego Padres63c126.98$80 inWon+$46.9840449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed San Diego Padres65c107.69$70 inWon+$37.6967449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Kansas City Royals36c100$36 inLost-$3699447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Kansas City Royals36c99$36 inLost-$35.641,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres65c61.54$40 inWon+$21.5446659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed San Diego Padres65c61.54$40 inWon+$21.5435353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab8b…24ffbacked Kansas City Royals37c50$19 inLost-$18.524843.5%108 W · 140 L-13.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6676…22f3backed San Diego Padres64c40.63$26 inWon+$14.6352947.4%251 W · 278 L-24.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Kansas City Royals38c39.47$15 inLost-$1528639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed San Diego Padres64c39.03$25 inWon+$14.0595252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Kansas City Royals38c34.5$13 inLost-$13.1170455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked San Diego Padres62c34.5$21 inWon+$13.1145748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dae…7199backed Kansas City Royals37c29.52$11 inLost-$10.9213151.1%67 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked San Diego Padres65c21.54$14 inWon+$7.5489950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed San Diego Padres63c20.22$13 inWon+$7.481,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.