MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc12740ebba597c6f4eeadb37d5ada303b2c92fd25999f27286ad762d8e4e789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 9,303$6,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,644.05 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 4,580$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.98 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 25c | 1,273$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.71 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 1,147$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.14 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 1,116$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.73 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 715.67$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.7 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 557$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Kansas City Royals | 24c | 523.42$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 356.06$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Kansas City Royals | 25c | 252.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 209$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 173.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 124.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Kansas City Royals | 20c | 102.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 98.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Kansas City Royals | 31c | 94.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 80.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Kansas City Royals | 34c | 67.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 48.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Kansas City Royals | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 38.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City RoyalsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-5.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-6.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.