MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c59a23836da116c63eea8a1ee09e50643faddf24daa5747b004a562385687f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8377…4198backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 5,646$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215.68 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 4,601$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.41 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 2,109$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.07 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 1,388$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.76 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 1,250$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 1,000$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.13 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 696.63$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.11 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…027dbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 550$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 447.63$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.2 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 268.89$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.89 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 243.15$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 243.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 178.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.31 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed San Francisco Giants | 21c | 123.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 102.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 101.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 82.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 72.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 63.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.