NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c824b11987cad0ee0c264e01d2d41ccbc0603e9d4c4b55b9635808e7aff0651
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 56c | 6,929$3,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,880 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa558…1b44backed Under | 54c | 3,963$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.06 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 3,637$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.34 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 3,495$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,957.19 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Under | 54c | 1,837$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Over | 46c | 1,154$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.15 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 53c | 776.31$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.44 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 47c | 506.96$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.69 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 56c | 446.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 444$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 371.42$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 55c | 370$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 45c | 355.56$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 44c | 233.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.66 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 53c | 224.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 8c | 190.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…3cc7backed Under | 54c | 162.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 54c | 143$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Under | 45c | 125$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 29c | 106$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 33c | 100.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 254 | 35.4%90 W · 164 L | -22.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 55.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 65c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…268cbacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 42.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 31.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 67c | 17.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. RangersSenators won
- Senators vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Senators won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.