UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c83f498559155edb5dc249235d7e93c8e2a326e88d33989a6b5604064f3c3bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Under | 47c | 6,359$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 4,399$2,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.44 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…3c7bbacked Under | 52c | 3,124$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over | 62c | 3,112$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +62%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Under | 48c | 2,082$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.04 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 56c | 1,216$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.24 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 53c | 950.94$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Over | 58c | 699.95$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.98 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Under | 49c | 606.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 54c | 439$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.11 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 44c | 343.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 61c | 327.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e92fbacked Under | 43c | 279$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 182.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 54c | 160.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 15c | 119.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Under | 42c | 116.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e9c6backed Under | 42c | 109.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 42c | 80.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Over | 63c | 70.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cc…ed79backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Over | 59c | 33.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…77e3backed Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…5ea9backed Under | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…1d45backed Over | 54c | 23.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card)Kevin Borjas won
- Will Kevin Borjas win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.