Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cc8aab08a20a8ee640b8e143d8f2facde56a5295ed82dfda7595fa5cfc343f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 1,323$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 313$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 272.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 231.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 26c | 231.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 70c | 165.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.22 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 160.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 65c | 152.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 63c | 148.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 59c | 145.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 128.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 10c | 128.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 48c | 120.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 120.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 117.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 39c | 115.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 74c | 101.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 54c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 67c | 89.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 48c | 83.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 49c | 82.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 62c | 80.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 33c | 74.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 48c | 70.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 28c | 68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 59c | 67.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 67.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 63c | 65.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 46c | 63.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 61.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 76c | 60.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 54c | 59.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 56.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 55.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 40c | 54.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 52c | 51.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 45c | 51.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 22c | 51.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed No | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 33c | 43.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 42.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 38c | 39.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 33.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 61c | 33.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 55c | 32.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 51c | 29.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 61c | 29.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 67c | 26.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 25.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 46c | 24.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 57c | 24.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 78c | 19.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.