MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cd54414ff4d5285d019b45604d72b92fac1aeb68e71a3a09d859866dc129d58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 2,705$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 2,518$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.92 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 417.44$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.93 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 377.74$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 324.72$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Miami Marlins | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Miami Marlins | 6c | 166.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 152$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 138.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 132.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 109.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 80.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 77.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 76.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 64.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 57.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…4d1abacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.