MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe622e2c16e2e27bf66f57b99b4bee9fc4b0a67995125be858b8706a8df27b0b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd25…a624backed Under | 71c | 9,863$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 6,485$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,595.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 2,794$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 2,066$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.47 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 40c | 1,137$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.04 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 46c | 1,126$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.05 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,115$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.2 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 870.14$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 861$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 59c | 700$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.6 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 37c | 535$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.05 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 468$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.12 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 424.39$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.66 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 409.48$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.8 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 224.91$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Over | 40c | 222.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.71 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…953fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 41c | 164.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 59c | 162.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 152.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 45c | 142.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 53c | 132.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 130.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 38c | 124.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.11 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 47c | 117.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 43c | 113.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Under | 65c | 106.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 29c | 95.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 63c | 72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 54c | 69.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Under | 70c | 66.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 55c | 52.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 49.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Over | 40c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 72c | 48.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Over | 47c | 48.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 41c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 41.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 39.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 38.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Under | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 42c | 35.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Under | 33c | 32.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 68c | 32.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Under | 62c | 28.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 62c | 28.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Under | 57c | 27.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 54c | 27.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.