MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x187729a906bc12373844993adab5ceb478dca0f57725cf0399bbd1580b7484d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 54c | 218,075$118,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,405.37 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 46c | 157,485$72,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,681.4 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 45c | 27,421$12,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,339.52 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd67…ef90backed Under | 45c | 25,000$11,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,250 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 11,793$5,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,311.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 9,696$5,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,642.77 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 52c | 9,593$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 7,534$3,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,413.12 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 6,106$3,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 4,204$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 2,954$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 54c | 2,800$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 2,427$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 1,503$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.59 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 55c | 1,365$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.25 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 52c | 1,116$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.76 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 1,063$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 1,024$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.92 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Over | 53c | 489.54$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.37 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | +11.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 45c | 333.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 53c | 311$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 45c | 286$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 50c | 273.94$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 269.24$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 50c | 250.71$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 55c | 218.06$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 45c | 204.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x909a…e48cbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 47c | 135.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 58c | 120.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 47c | 108.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 107.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 41c | 93.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 45c | 93.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 55c | 88.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 36c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 20c | 79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 77.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 45c | 77.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 47c | 68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 58.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 59c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdd…4648backed Under | 45c | 53.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 45c | 52.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 47c | 51.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…809cbacked Under | 68c | 44.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Under | 45c | 44.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 42.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Under | 47c | 41.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 70c | 35.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 74c | 22.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Under | 46c | 21.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 61c | 21.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.