MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2549ee06936f63f5f5aed1e2f4d2f53d84542d47d301647b1a9042956b9c96c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 12,212$7,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,763.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 10,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 8,931$3,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,483.02 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…aed8backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 3,801$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 3,230$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.4 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 2,973$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.16 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 2,968$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 1,612$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.36 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 1,094$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.69 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 1,024$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…0f3dbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.40per pick | 50cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 857$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.23 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 825$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 585$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.15 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 252.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 246$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 243.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 235.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 204.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 196$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 149.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 102.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 70.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 195 | 55.9%109 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 67.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 51.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 45.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 39.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 33.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 27.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…6de5backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 50cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 23.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 20.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.