NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Ducks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce55cc5b75b27acd767c4f819301a57d8d252bebb4d8719510739f079e38d01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Ducks | 13c | 6,134$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.07 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ec…f8b2backed Golden Knights | 58c | 2,032$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…71b0backed Ducks | 42c | 2,032$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Ducks | 40c | 1,165$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.98 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Golden Knights | 60c | 1,000$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Ducks | 37c | 215.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Ducks | 15c | 215$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Golden Knights | 64c | 173.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…db19backed Golden Knights | 66c | 128.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Ducks | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Golden Knights | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed Ducks | 44c | 90.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…cfb9backed Golden Knights | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Golden Knights | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…2261backed Golden Knights | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Golden Knights | 60c | 43.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…d647backed Golden Knights | 66c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…e878backed Golden Knights | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 64cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Golden Knights | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…67c6backed Golden Knights | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked Golden Knights | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…54d4backed Golden Knights | 60c | 16.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.