Fifa International · resolved market
Will Paraguay win on 2025-11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d0b382a0d07e30da5493f0f308ee2c1a80d9f32055d9bb882d4e0061b52f06e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 37c | 37,500$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000 | 270 | 39.6%107 W · 163 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 63c | 36,783$23,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,719.61 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 1,151$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.29 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 30c | 586.28$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.3 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 59c | 539.71$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.32 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 22c | 477.33$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.28 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 459$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.16 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 21c | 407.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 77c | 380$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 23c | 206$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.62 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Yes | 60c | 204.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 22c | 186.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x670f…1439backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…86d0backed Yes | 25c | 153.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 125$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 23c | 106.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c89…36aebacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 58c | 85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6654…5952backed Yes | 22c | 61.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +197%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 61.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…4cccbacked Yes | 65c | 49.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…e358backed Yes | 75c | 39.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8e2backed No | 79c | 20.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Yes | 66c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paraguay win on 2025-11-18?this page
- Will Mexico vs. Paraguay end in a draw?No won
- Will Mexico win on 2025-11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.