Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d252c6a46babf6ff55ffb878dcdff38672790f40402d47379f50cced03077de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 228.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.21 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 194.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 194$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 17c | 180.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 59c | 148.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 136.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 68c | 129.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 118.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 40c | 116.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 101.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 100.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 42c | 88.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 40c | 81.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…9c50backed No | 62c | 80.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 80.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 66.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 61.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 57.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 44c | 57.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 56.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 59c | 48.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 47.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 34c | 43.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 40.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 57c | 39.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 75c | 38.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 49c | 36.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 33.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 35c | 30.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked Yes | 46c | 29.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 27.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 69c | 25.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 23.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 22.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…55d0backed No | 66c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.