Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78b9f3e01a68f63bc303070a59671a6d20e73c143ce34c33a89ad899d36aa7f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 68c | 459.73$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 44c | 286.61$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.52 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 205$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 47c | 202.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 193.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 63c | 159.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 136.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 129.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 101.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 74c | 100.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 31c | 97.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 92.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 89.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 34c | 73.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 79c | 63.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 56c | 63.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed No | 63c | 59.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 56.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed No | 69c | 48.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 48.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 47.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…04a1backed Yes | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…e993backed Yes | 80c | 39.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc53f…5c8bbacked No | 39c | 38.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed Yes | 80c | 33.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 53c | 33.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 30.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 48c | 30.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 46c | 28.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 42c | 27.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 47c | 26.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e10…d25bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 59c | 23.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 69c | 15.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.