Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments (BO1) - ESL Challenger China Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d4c38769a07be2ce5f0b79ee64d1905aa7cd7cf60fcba1637e6faaec0d4f09d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Refuserof Team Refuser, Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 1c | 2,254$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Team Refuser | 55c | 500.7$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.7 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 48c | 473.94$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.97 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 51c | 297.94$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.67 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Team Refuser | 49c | 292.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 42c | 280.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Refuser | 62c | 208.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Team Refuser | 60c | 157.18$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…7750backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 64c | 124.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 43c | 116.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Team Refuser | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Refuser | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Refuser | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 38c | 92.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 29c | 73.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 37c | 62.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Team Refuser | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…20e7backed Team Refuser | 67c | 58.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Team Refuser | 73c | 54.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Team Refuser | 60c | 51.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Team Refuser | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 39c | 33.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 52c | 30.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0625…7965backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…7fafbacked Team Refuser | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Team Refuser | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.