NHL · resolved market
DEL: ERC Ingolstadt vs. Koelner Haie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d51d34dbd73ce697c5b2805f45b4c320611834a4236e4300b952335d64a872a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Koelner Haieof ERC Ingolstadt, Koelner Haie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Koelner Haie | 41c | 3,036$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.87 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed ERC Ingolstadt | 65c | 2,914$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.93 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked ERC Ingolstadt | 61c | 2,044$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.43 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Koelner Haie | 35c | 1,104$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.62 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Koelner Haie | 35c | 994.29$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.29 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Koelner Haie | 35c | 736.43$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.68 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed ERC Ingolstadt | 59c | 439.58$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed ERC Ingolstadt | 59c | 373.63$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.44 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Koelner Haie | 39c | 305.41$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.51 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Koelner Haie | 35c | 280$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Koelner Haie | 42c | 259.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 492 | 49.6%244 W · 248 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Koelner Haie | 42c | 236.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.57 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 59c | 219$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.21 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…85b2backed Koelner Haie | 35c | 208$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.2 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ERC Ingolstadt | 58c | 201.07$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed ERC Ingolstadt | 58c | 158$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…bcdfbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 59c | 122.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…b668backed Koelner Haie | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed ERC Ingolstadt | 59c | 93.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 55c | 86.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f0…fdf8backed Koelner Haie | 46c | 82.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Koelner Haie | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed ERC Ingolstadt | 58c | 68.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Koelner Haie | 34c | 65.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed ERC Ingolstadt | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…c162backed Koelner Haie | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Koelner Haie | 41c | 43.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed ERC Ingolstadt | 59c | 39.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Koelner Haie | 38c | 38.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…29d8backed Koelner Haie | 45c | 33.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Koelner Haie | 43c | 31.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2e…bf82backed ERC Ingolstadt | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked ERC Ingolstadt | 58c | 20.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…56e8backed ERC Ingolstadt | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.