Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d5bec3e428e1542b199fba93069ac4760e72620a636712411996ad376a8ed70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 1,668$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.07 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 687.14$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 495.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 77c | 491.53$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 453.24$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 22c | 262.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 258.52$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…b46abacked No | 80c | 252.47$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 229.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 17c | 204.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 22c | 203.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 20c | 199.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 191$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed No | 77c | 159.25$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 22c | 153.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 146$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 21c | 130.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 125.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 122.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 110.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 21c | 103.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 80c | 98.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 68c | 94.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 81.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 71.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 78c | 67.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 79c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 23c | 64.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 64.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 64.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 33c | 60.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 54.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 48.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 44.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 69c | 39.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 35.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 29.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 28.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 27.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 80c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadce…a482backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 17.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 42°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.