Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49dcfd283bba92cd697c2b03be3fe0d0bf86a5fb04b32a9937ec75609071ac14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,461$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.49 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 34c | 630.1$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.47 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 576.49$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 517.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.37 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 431.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 400.75$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 35c | 345.36$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…d288backed Yes | 35c | 345.36$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 310.63$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 64c | 298$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.64 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 285.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 283$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 254.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 36c | 214.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 62c | 212.65$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 194.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.92 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 166.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 165$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 161.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 63c | 159.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa35…bda4backed No | 74c | 148.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…6555backed Yes | 56c | 130.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 128.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 39c | 124.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 122.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 54c | 121$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 120.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 117$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 110.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 106.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 105.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 104.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 64c | 103.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 100.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 13c | 96.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 95.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 82.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 78.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 64c | 73.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 26c | 73.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 58c | 72.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 69.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 68.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 55c | 64.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 59c | 63.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 64c | 62.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…9bbbbacked Yes | 53c | 60.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 60.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 56.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Yes | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 53.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 50.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked No | 69c | 50.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 46.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 30.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 69c | 30.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 30.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 30.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 29.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 41c | 26.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 72c | 21.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked No | 51c | 21.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 42°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.