Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d96a7090dc5923cce88a75f156e9497e64752a583cc96c347f581593ecdca0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Yes | 59c | 2,890$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 28c | 2,736$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.97 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked No | 72c | 2,053$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.55 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 41c | 1,786$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.41 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked No | 72c | 1,366$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.31 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 1,083$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 32c | 550.43$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.05 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 28c | 446$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 28c | 446$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 28c | 445.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked No | 72c | 409.76$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 30c | 355$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 44c | 148.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked No | 34c | 141.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.22 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 64c | 134.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 32c | 126.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 29c | 124$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 41c | 112$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 31c | 62.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…8a93backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 42c | 50.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 52c | 49.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 63c | 48.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Yes | 32c | 39.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 31c | 38.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Yes | 34c | 32.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Yes | 40c | 27.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 55c | 21.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Yes | 70c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 72c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Yes | 57c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will Hannover 96 vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.