Us Politics · resolved market
New Epstein names released by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2de5f5f90ba3eb6b74eb007d87383ae2e9f70416de1c1a4b24aabafbf08ae251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ca8…dc6dbacked Yes | 1c | 35,235$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,746$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 7c | 1,024$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 5c | 509$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 14c | 399.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e2…5d53backed Yes | 4c | 371$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f3…ada9backed Yes | 15c | 356.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 295.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 7c | 243.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 25c | 125.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 12c | 98.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b14…49a4backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…a321backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 73c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.