Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City vs. Leeds United: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e006957a52c18ff14a8f4e6724e991d1ad71e081706ca5d030ab60648371a70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 370 | 54.9%203 W · 167 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 51c | 3,907$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.45 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 46c | 2,534$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.48 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 1,477$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.27 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 1,399$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.15 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 44c | 1,101$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.6 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 690.11$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.04 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e99…8475backed Over | 44c | 644$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 56c | 443.98$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.63 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b6…032cbacked Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 55c | 378.44$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.35 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.95 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 44c | 275.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.31 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…9e72backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 70c | 169.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 44c | 137.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 26c | 135.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 40c | 108.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…cd52backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 45c | 74.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 57c | 70.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Over | 60c | 70.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 42c | 68.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 43c | 68.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 39c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 43c | 66.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Over | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…2704backed Under | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f1…4bd9backed Under | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…7412backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Under | 58c | 28.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb2…e990backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Over | 79c | 20.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 172 | 54.1%93 W · 79 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City vs. Leeds United: O/U 3.5this page
- Manchester City vs. Leeds United: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City vs. Leeds United: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City vs. Leeds United: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Manchester City (-1.5)Leeds United won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.