Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e109986687d5a7a8f9902c70975444e93b13a3b0267f042fb4c707a7e302373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 2c | 3,232$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,127$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 1c | 1,187$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 944.86$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 4c | 920.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed No | 60c | 764.71$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.13 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 5c | 731.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 2c | 568.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed No | 3c | 504.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 396.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 376.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 49c | 362.93$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.7 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 3c | 350.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 5c | 342.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.84 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 12c | 330.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.07 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 327.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 66c | 308.55$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 11c | 263.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.55 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 251.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.84 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 60c | 249.8$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 221.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 5c | 210.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.45 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 6c | 204.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 8c | 194.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.85 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 20c | 188.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.46 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 7c | 160.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.3 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 38c | 147.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 16c | 146.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.03 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…0da8backed Yes | 70c | 138.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 59c | 127.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 11c | 123.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 111.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 13c | 90.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 39c | 84.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 43c | 83.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 69c | 72.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 66.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 19c | 56.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 65c | 49.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 69c | 40.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 35.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 35c | 30.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 35c | 29.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 39c | 28.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 48c | 20.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.