Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c7cd66272e2888f18cc4b77d3f444fd199c3c09540c3cd350d8f9eda28f8318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe976…2c25backed Yes | 2c | 999.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 399.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 332.23$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 65c | 305.05$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 27c | 260.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 238.57$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 237.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 42c | 220.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 42c | 195.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 154.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 65c | 148.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 148.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 128.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 35c | 114.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 32c | 106.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…3a39backed No | 78c | 101.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 33c | 100.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…53a2backed No | 69c | 99.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 36c | 96.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ae…0a09backed No | 75c | 82.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 41c | 79.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 58.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 51c | 54.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 74c | 53.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 50.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 67c | 48.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 48.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 26c | 45.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…1107backed Yes | 40c | 45.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 36c | 43.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 40.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…d088backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…e9ffbacked No | 60c | 39.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 33c | 36.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 66c | 35.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 57c | 33.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 80c | 32.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 37c | 30.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 79c | 29.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed No | 66c | 29.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…d084backed Yes | 41c | 28.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 52c | 27.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…d98abacked No | 44c | 25.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 59c | 17.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed No | 58c | 17.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 65c | 15.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 74c | 14.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.