Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3bb1aaaf526cba0f7a6456a21f24538bb9f8a376ffdec370511de80844fb4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof AVULUS, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9671…3a70backed AVULUS | 1c | 5,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed 1win | 62c | 2,730$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.66 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked AVULUS | 37c | 1,162$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.55 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed AVULUS | 46c | 572.98$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.2 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 38c | 555.5$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.36 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1win | 61c | 446.98$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.84 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed AVULUS | 19c | 348.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked AVULUS | 38c | 323.33$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.43 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed AVULUS | 41c | 243.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked AVULUS | 21c | 224.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed AVULUS | 42c | 214.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed 1win | 73c | 173.75$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…cbccbacked 1win | 68c | 147.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked 1win | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed 1win | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b76ebacked AVULUS | 30c | 79.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…229cbacked AVULUS | 32c | 78.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…e0d9backed AVULUS | 39c | 75.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1win | 71c | 73.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed 1win | 71c | 70.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…4dacbacked AVULUS | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed AVULUS | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed 1win | 66c | 41.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed 1win | 67c | 39.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed 1win | 59c | 36.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked 1win | 61c | 36.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…55b0backed AVULUS | 46c | 32.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked 1win | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group AAVULUS won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerAVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.