TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
AVULUSof AVULUS, 1win
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,326
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,767

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,326 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd604…ee57backed AVULUS37c2,646$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.352142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed AVULUS38c2,620$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,620.0813850%69 W · 69 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f2…d84fbacked 1win62c2,570$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,596.57746.8%36 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS26c2,451$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,807.52,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked AVULUS24c2,296$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750.6373841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd0…389fbacked 1win62c2,185$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.18475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS27c1,750$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.3646535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed 1win73c1,594$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed AVULUS58c1,423$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.6312965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked 1win63c1,170$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.8934146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8df0…96a6backed 1win67c1,144$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.33847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70e5…b0d3backed 1win1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked 1win57c939.52$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.367243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked AVULUS42c796.64$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.6412654.8%69 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed 1win76c782$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.8453757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa13a…c8f6backed 1win61c746.43$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a37…c99cbacked 1win80c575.89$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.633046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed AVULUS37c541.62$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.0357455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa824…c9fcbacked 1win57c435.1$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018053.3%96 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed 1win66c399.98$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed AVULUS36c383.45$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4947660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed AVULUS17c360.17$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.321145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked AVULUS34c345.52$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.115829.3%17 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed AVULUS59c339.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6729245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed AVULUS36c337.3$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.32142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c5…3aa4backed 1win70c325.8$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed AVULUS47c305.1$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.76854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked AVULUS36c278.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7423546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed 1win63c244.44$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1549045.6%41 W · 49 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a89…196fbacked 1win70c232.98$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x728a…a75cbacked AVULUS26c220$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00e6…cbccbacked 1win71c206.28$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.13560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa3e…7d35backed 1win78c196.75$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed 1win66c189.16$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0967853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d0…ee5abacked AVULUS26c174.61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed AVULUS10c160$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1449447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed AVULUS34c154.62$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5847748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed AVULUS10c145$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8852243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed AVULUS36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8972154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed AVULUS23c121.78$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.661,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked AVULUS32c110$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.592056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked 1win36c109.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405837.9%22 W · 36 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed AVULUS12c106.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4579343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb1e…66f1backed 1win75c105.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7250%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf4f…bdc8backed AVULUS59c98.1$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed AVULUS29c92.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.548037.5%30 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4735…d4ebbacked AVULUS33c90.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+201.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9bd…4dacbacked AVULUS34c90$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.43145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked 1win47c90$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6995841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf413…807abacked 1win79c88.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked AVULUS22c88.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.591520%3 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed AVULUS34c88.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2418444.6%82 W · 102 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf837…8b61backed AVULUS35c87.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e2e…b5a5backed 1win40c72.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.092420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0b0…ad2cbacked 1win67c71.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7621062.4%131 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed 1win71c70$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.74748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS26c69.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.946169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefe1…d082backed 1win72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0bc…b904backed AVULUS35c69.43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+189.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked AVULUS29c68.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0819443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd924…d06dbacked 1win68c66.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.762263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a3f…38e4backed AVULUS34c65.7$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.692142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…5fbbbacked AVULUS48c62.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.141414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-54.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed AVULUS47c59.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.98440.5%34 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed 1win30c55.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3763032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x109a…df7ebacked AVULUS55c54.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.11366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42e4…0b1fbacked 1win71c53.16$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed 1win75c50.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8420457.8%118 W · 86 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked AVULUS26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3717638.6%68 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x425f…0f7abacked 1win63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.518154.7%99 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7c…3d8cbacked 1win70c48.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf60c…f540backed 1win62c48.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.25362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed AVULUS26c46.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb876…ae6ebacked 1win70c41.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292850%14 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x392c…0bb4backed AVULUS36c40.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.261450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AVULUS45c40.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.022,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba78…273ebacked AVULUS40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked 1win69c38.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.658061.3%49 W · 31 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed 1win70c37.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2613157.3%75 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed AVULUS44c36.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.751127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked 1win69c36.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbfd…2f3bbacked 1win70c35.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed AVULUS30c35.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5634063.2%215 W · 125 L+38.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x284e…ddb2backed AVULUS35c35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.81955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc85d…6832backed AVULUS34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.812438.7%48 W · 76 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed AVULUS61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.79955.6%55 W · 44 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb27…8be8backed AVULUS38c28.63$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7818248.4%88 W · 94 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked 1win69c24.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.299150.5%46 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb57…32dcbacked 1win45c24.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252544%11 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84b…e0d9backed 1win78c21.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f98…a314backed 1win63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4485…912cbacked 1win61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed AVULUS61c19.44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5146451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3951…c5b2backed 1win63c18.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4c…77bdbacked AVULUS66c15.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.331546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d11…bee6backed 1win72c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.