Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf62f261649b016e023b6288fa094236362125a2dff2ce0d7d1aa0c75976b227a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof AVULUS, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked AVULUS | 32c | 2,161$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.01 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…b0d3backed 1win | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked 1win | 62c | 1,051$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.1 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed AVULUS | 38c | 895$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.9 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed 1win | 67c | 552.28$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked 1win | 8c | 537.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed 1win | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked 1win | 68c | 405.94$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.13 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked AVULUS | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…ee57backed AVULUS | 50c | 294.11$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed AVULUS | 36c | 276.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.07 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 66c | 257.76$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.26 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked 1win | 71c | 201$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed 1win | 70c | 191.04$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked AVULUS | 30c | 189.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 1win | 60c | 177.21$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…cbccbacked 1win | 77c | 167.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…4bd9backed 1win | 61c | 163.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed 1win | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked AVULUS | 37c | 120$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked AVULUS | 42c | 116.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed 1win | 69c | 110$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked AVULUS | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed 1win | 76c | 65.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed AVULUS | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…4dacbacked 1win | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 59c | 33.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac2…b76ebacked AVULUS | 75c | 30.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked 1win | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked 1win | 70c | 29.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…38e4backed 1win | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…e0d9backed 1win | 70c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group AAVULUS won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.